რუსეთ-უკრაინის ომის შესაძლო გავლენა 2024 წლის აშშ-ის საპრეზიდენტო არჩევნებზე/ The Russo-Ukrainian War and Its Possible Impact on the 2024 United States Presidential Election

Abstract

The Russian war against Ukraine unified almost the full political spectrum of the United States. Nearly unanimous decisions of the U.S. Congress which made it possible to provide the both military and non-military support to Ukraine clearly confirm this. Only a handful of politicians expressed their scepticism regarding the support towards Ukraine. Mostly, those were the Republicans supporting Donald Trump, but sometimes the so-called “Progressives” among Democrats also joined them (albeit because of completely different reasons). Despite this, the prolongation of war may increase the number of Americans who will support the reducing or even stopping the aid to Ukraine. This is significant because of the U.S. Presidential Election, which will take place next year. As we already see, such viewpoints are quite pronounced in the pro-- Republican media. In this case, we have to single out Tucker Carlson from Fox News, whose weeknight Tucker Carlson Tonight is the most popular political show in the United States. Tucker Carlson regularly expresses his doubts regarding the Ukrainian achievements in the war and frequently spreads disinformation and the Russian propaganda about the hostilities. This is especially true regarding the leak of papers from the Pentagon. The significance of Tucker Carlson’s factor is increased by his open support to Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election. Trump is not hiding his negative attitude towards Ukraine. Although, he does not (and will not) dare to express the open support to Russia, but stopping or even reducing the aid to Ukraine (which he evidently wishes) can be considered as choosing the aggressor’s side. Moreover, the similar statement (“While the U.S. has many vital national interests...becoming further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia is not one of them”) was made by Ron DeSantis, Governor of Floridan, who is considered as the main rival of Donald Trump in Republican Primaries. Nevertheless, it should be mentioned that he was speaking on Tucker Carlson Tonight and the most conservative electorate was the primary target of his address. Thus, it seems this was a tactical step from DeSantis in the intra-party struggle, since he had never expressed pro-Russian sentiments and called Vladimir Putin a “war criminal” on the next day. At the same time, there is presidential candidate from the Democratic Party, who shares the anti-Ukrainian views. Robert Francis Kennedy Jr., who has officially announced his run for the presidency, repeated the disinformation from Tucker Carlson. He also made some other statements which showed his ignorance regarding the question. For example, Robert Kennedy Jr. declared that he will withdraw the American “troopsp from Russia’s borders,” and this “would entice Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine.” Of course, this statement is so naïve that it is not possible to analyse it seriously. Nevertheless, since President Biden’s second term is not appealing to the part of the Democratic electorate, Kennedy can enjoy some support (unless other candidates appear) among the voters during the Democratic Primaries. (At this moment his popularity is at 14% among the Democrats.) In conclusion, we have to say that Donald Trump remains as the most significant threat to the interests of Ukraine (and the civilized world) and his possible choosing as the presidential candidate from the Republican Party can be a result of the anti- Ukrainian and pro-Russian sentiments among the ultra-conservative voters. Nevertheless, there is a hope that Ukraine will either win the war or achieve the decisive victories prior to November of 2024 and the Ukrainian issue will have no impact on the American voters.