Uncertainty and risk during the COVID-19 pandemic (გაურკვევლობა და რისკი კოვიდ-19 პანდემიის პირობებში)

dc.contributor.authorNatsvaladze (ნაცვალაძე), Marine (მარინე)
dc.description1. Faulkner, P., Feduzi, A. & Runde, J. (2017). Black Swans and the risk/uncertainty distinction, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Volume 41, Issue 5, Pages 1279–1302, https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bex035 2. Keynes, J.M. 1937 [1973]. The general theory of employment, Quarterly Journal of Economics, in The General Theory and After: Part II Defence and Development, vol. 51, No. 2 (Feb, 1937), http://hetwebsite.net/het/texts/keynes/keynes1937qje.htm 3. Kelman, S. (2021), Blog, Steven Kelman suggests we should spend more time planning for the known risks on the horizon. https://fcw.com/blogs/lectern/2021/01/kelman-covid-black-swans-gray-rhinos.aspx 4. Papava, V. (2021). The Threat of the Formation of a Post-pandemic Zombie Economy and the Legal Capacity of Bankruptcy Mechanisms, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357017565_The_Threat_of_the_Formation_of_a_Postpandemic_Zombie_Economy_and_the_Legal_Capacity_of_Bankruptcy_Mechanisms 5. Papava, V. (2020b). On the Atypical Economic Crisis Under the COVID-19 Pandemic. Economics and Business, XII(4), 9- 16. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349098628_On_the_Atypical_Economic_Crisis_under_the_COVID19_Pandemic 6. Papava, V. (2020a). Coronomic Crisis: When the Economy Is a Hostage to Medicine. https://www.researchgate.net/- publication/340264924_Coronomic_Crisis_When_The_Economy_Is_A_Hostage_To_Medicine 7. Taleb, N.N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/books/chapters/0422-1st-tale.html 8. Wucker, M. (2016). The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore, ISBN 978-1-250- 05382-4. https://www.scribd.com/book/304897437/The-Gray-Rhino-How-to-Recognize-and-Act-on-the-Obvious-Dangers-We-Ignore 9. Wucker, M. (2020). The World in 2021, Was the pandemic a grey rhino or a black swan? It was more predictable than people realize. The Economics, https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/was-the-pandemic-a-greyrhino-or-a-black-swan 10. Xu,T. (2021). Uncertainty, Ignorance and Decision-Making: Looking Through the Lens of Modelling the Covid-19 Pandemic, School of Law, University of Essex, Amicus Curiae, Series 2, Vol 3, No 1, 10-32 https://core.ac.uk/display/479484442?source=2en_US
dc.description.abstractAlmost every market, both for services and goods, has been experiencing increasing uncertainty since the beginning of 2020. A lot of interesting research topics have emerged after the impact of COVID-19 on the economy. The disdain for the expected high dangers and related risks, which were overlooked by many countries' governments in prior years, may be seen in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Scientists had warned that the world was ill-equipped to deal with the pandemic. Immediately after it began, it became clear that the reactions of many countries were delayed, and the measures taken were ineffective. This affected almost every industry in the economy. One of the most intriguing consequences of COVID-19 is its effect on demand and increasing risks in a variety of markets as a result of the negative effects of the economic recession and rising unemployment. It's worth noting that the negative economic effects of pandemics, isolation, and remote working practices completely altered market demand for goods and services, and therefore the offer. It is very hard to assess which effect is more significant, and the impact is likely to vary per country. In this study, the evaluation of political measures affecting the economy is discussed on the basis of the "Black Swan" and "Grey Rhino" terms, in situations of unpredictable uncertainty and measured risks. "Black Swan" is used to describe very rare events that are highly predictable and have a high impact, and "Grey Rhino" describes very likely high-impact risk events. Risk describes the situation where there is a loss or danger. While uncertainty differs from risk in that risk can be estimated in advance and measured using historical market data, uncertainty cannot. As a result, risks are easier to handle since they can be insured, but uncertainty cannot be insured. The reality following the COVID-19 pandemic is a very good example of taking decisions in a situation of uncertainty. We faced a lot of uncertainties at the start of the epidemic – we did not know how to protect ourselves, how to carry on with everyday life, and so on. The Black Swan Theory explains why society ignores the most significant changes when traditional risk management is completely ineffective. It refers to an unforeseen and suspicious event that has a significant impact, while the "Grey Rhino" is the very obvious but ignored threat. The "Grey Rhino" is a metaphor for threats that we can see and hear but fail to address. In some ways, the term "Grey Rhino" is the opposite of "White Swan." In the future, facing the challenges requires long-term, large-scale thinking. The link between individual psychology and economic decision-making is becoming increasingly apparent.en_US
dc.identifier.citationInternational Scientific Conference Dedicated to the Establishment of the University and the 100th Anniversary of the Faculty of Economics and Business “Covid 19 Pandemic and Economics”, Tbilisi, 2022, pp. 243-249en_US
dc.publisherIvane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University Pressen_US
dc.subjectUncertainty, Risk, Black Swan, Gray Rhino, Behavioral Economicsen_US
dc.titleUncertainty and risk during the COVID-19 pandemic (გაურკვევლობა და რისკი კოვიდ-19 პანდემიის პირობებში)en_US
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