The development of a systematic and analytical model for foreign trade forecasting

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dc.contributor.authorGaganidze, Giorgi
dc.contributor.authorArefeev, Igor
dc.contributor.authorMunjishvili, Tea
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-10T08:54:16Z
dc.date.available2021-12-10T08:54:16Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.descriptionReference 1. http://forsim.tsu.ge/ 2. Gaganidze G. Munjishvili T. Development of the specific gravitational model describing foreign trade between two countries with simulation method. Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Strategies, Models and Technologies of Economic Systems Management (SMTESM 2019). www.atlantis-press.com/proceedings/smtesm-19/125917618. 3.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/347455695_Grafo-analiticeskij_metod_ocenki_sostoania_diagnostiruemogo_obekta 4. Арефьев И.Б. Логико-рефлексивное представление моделей древовидных структур. // Системный анализ в проектировании и управлени. 2014. СПб, Изд-во СПГТУ. C. 56-60. 5. Ariefiew I. Forecasting and control object of management in the environment of system PERT. Maritime University, Szczecin., Biblioteka cyfrowa., 2012.. 293 p. 6. P. R. Krugman, International economics: theory & policy, P. R. Krugman, M. Obstfeld, M. J. Melitz. – 9th ed. –Boston: Pearson Education, Inc, 2012. 7. J.E. Anderson, and E. van Wincoop, “Trade Costs”, Journal of Economic Literature, 42, pp. 691–751, 2004. 8. J. Tinbergen, The Use of Models: Experience and Prospects . [Online]. Available: https://www.nobelprize. org/prizes/economic-sciences/ 1969/tinbergen/lecture/. Accessed on: May 29, 2019. Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, volume 95 46 9. World Data Atlas. [Online]. Available: https://knoema.com/atlas?origin=knoema.ru. Accessed on: May 29, 2019. [6] G. Gaganidze, “Georgian Export Potential Utilization on the EU Market”, Journal of International Management Studies, vol. 16, no. 1, pp.13-18, 2016. 10. T. Munjishvili, “Developing enterprise financial sustainability and bankruptcy Forecasting model in specific economic-mathematical environment using simulation method, Information Theories and Applications, vol. 26, no. 3, pp. 285-299, 2019en_US
dc.description.abstractGravitational model describing Georgia’s Foreign Trade Relations is developed by the simulation method. Determination of optimal values of coefficients existing within the models is carried out by our developed computer program, not by the linear optimization method within the scope of simulation mode. In order to adequately reflect the influence of the pandemic factor on foreign trade and the possible consequences of the decision made, a modified version of the gravity model developed by us using the method of logical-reflexive modeling is considered. The presented economic-mathematical model of foreign trade is based on gravitational, logical-reflexive and logical-probability modeling.en_US
dc.identifier.citationVI International Scientific Conference: "Challenges of Globalization in Economics and Business", Tbilisi, 2021, pp. 368-375en_US
dc.identifier.isbn978-9941-491-35-1
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.tsu.ge/handle/123456789/831
dc.language.isogeen_US
dc.publisherIvane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University Pressen_US
dc.subjectForeign Trade, logical-reflexive model, logical-probability model, optimization task, FinSimen_US
dc.titleThe development of a systematic and analytical model for foreign trade forecastingen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
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